Wie ik ben en waar ik ga (2)

Wie ik ben en waar ik ga is de titel van m'n posting op 6 mei 2010. Anderhalve week geleden kreeg ik een reactie van Jan H. Rufer. Die reactie is voor mij reden om er wat meer over te schrijven.

De laatste maanden verschenen enkele heel interessante bijdragen over de "peak oil" problematiek. Langzaamaan lijkt het duidelijker te worden hoe de effecten van het bereiken en passeren van de Hubbertpiek zich zullen manifesteren. Dit, zo is de teneur van veel recente studies, zal vooral via economische effecten gaan: prijsstijgingen, vraaguitval en verergering van de financiële crisis die momenteel grote delen van de wereld teistert. Gail Tverberg heeft hierover een interessante posting op haar weblog gezet. De basis van haar posting  is het wetenschappelijke artikel "Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis".

Heel interessant is haar posting "Human population overshoot–what went wrong?". Zij schrijft hierin over het boek van Craig Dilworth, "Too Smart for Our Own Good: The Ecological Predicament of Mankind" dat eind 2009 verscheen.

De beschrijving van Dilworth's boek op Amazon.com:

"We are destroying our natural environment at a constantly increasing pace, and in so doing undermining the preconditions of our own existence. Why is this so? This book reveals that our ecologically disruptive behavior is in fact rooted in our very nature as a species.
Drawing on evolution theory, biology, anthropology, archaeology, economics, environmental science and history, this book explains the ecological predicament of humankind by placing it in the context of the first scientific theory of our species' development, taking over where Darwin left off.
The theory presented is applied in detail to the whole of our seven-million-year history. Due to its comprehensiveness, and in part thanks to its extensive glossary and index, this book can function as a compact encyclopedia covering the whole development of Homo sapiens. It would also suit a variety of courses in the life and social sciences. Most importantly, Too Smart makes evident the very core of the paradigm to which our species must shift if it is to survive.
Anyone concerned about the future of humankind should read this ground-breaking work."

De conclusies die Craig Dilworth trekt uit zijn veelomvattende studie zijn ronduit pessimistisch (p. 453-454):

"[……] due to the power/interest structures of global capitalism and the juggernaut-like momentum of the global economy, it is most unlikely that any of the radical changes to society and the economy proposed by environmentalists -especially changes in philosophies and worldviews- will be adopted in time. Consequently human civilisation -primarily Western techno-industrial urban society- will self-destruct, producing massive environmental damage, social chaos and megadeath. We are entering a new dark age, with great dieback.
The only question that remains is whether we will survive this dark age and if so, for how much longer."